2008 Comprehensive Plan Update

2008 Mobility Committee

2008 Land Use Advisory Committee

Residential Build Out Analysis

Key Points:

Prince William County has already zoned enough acres for residential development to accommodate the projected population growth for the next 20 years.
The Land Use Advisory Committee and the Mobility Committee developed their chapters separately.

The proposed Land Use and Transportation Chapters reference the same "smart growth" principles, but the chapters have significantly different approaches on where to encourage new development.
The Mobility Committee recommended that the county encourage new development to accommodate projected population increases, based on the county's Build-Out Analysis, at transit-oriented densities, which they defined as 20 residential units per acre.
The Mobility Committee recommended six specific locations as the highest priorities for enhancing transit services. These locations reflect the areas proposed for revitalization, as well as areas where developer interest is high.
The proposed transit plan was completed by a consultant working with the Planning Office. The transit consultant's report is based on the assumption that the County will steer new development to "centers" and proposes locations for transit services, including some VRE stations that were not recommended by Mobility Committee.
The Land Use Committee recommended the addition of 19 "centers" that could accommodate dramatically higher population growth than is predicted by 2030.
The Land Use Committee also recommended increased residential densities in the Semi-Rural Residential district, mixed use categories and others.
Because the proposed Land Use Chapter includes only vague limits to the size and allowed densities for the new Centers of Community, the County cannot take advantage of Virginia's new Traffic Impact Analysis Regulations.
The estimated cost for one mile of a single lane arterial road is $4 million. The County currently plans to build 575 additional lane miles.

$4 million x 575 = $2.3 billion
(+ $200 million for grade separated interchanges).

Voter approved road bonds from 1988 to 2006 = $557 million.
The Planning Commission and the Board of Supervisors, which makes the final decision, will determine how to align the inconsistent drafts proposed by two separate committees.
Will our public officials choose to incentivize new development in empty spaces next to transit and revitalize existing commercial centers or initiate new development in new areas?

The image of a community is fundamentally important to its economic well-being. If all places look alike, there's no reason to go anywhere.
~ Ed McMahon, Conservation Fund

The 2008 Comprehensive Plan Update: A Vision for Prince William County

Every five years, the County reviews and updates the Comprehensive Plan, the key document intended to shape future development in the county.

Previously the Board of Supervisors appointed a Citizen Committee to review and recommend changes to the entire Comprehensive Plan. For the 2008 update, the County is reviewing the Comprehensive on a chapter by chapter basis, beginning with the Transportation and Land Use Chapters.

In 2007 the Board appointed two separate committees: a Land Use Advisory Committee (LUAC) and Mobility Committee, to update the Land Use and Transportation chapters. The draft for the Land Use Chapter incorporated recommendations from the Housing Board to update the Housing Chapter.

Except for an all-day joint seminar on July 12, 2007, the Land Use Advisory Committee and the Mobility Committee developed their chapters separately. The recommendations in each chapter reference the same "smart growth" principles, but the chapters have significantly different approaches on where to encourage new development.

Transit-oriented development creates a sense of place. The Mobility Committee used the County's build-out analysis to identify the projected population increase through the year 2030. The committee then recommended that the county encourage new development to accommodate that growth at transit-oriented densities, which the committee defined as 20 residential units per acre.

Typical bedroom community development. In contrast, the Land Use Advisory Committee "centers" could accommodate dramatically higher population growth than is predicted by 2030. The centers are also scattered across the county, without any way to shape which areas will actually be developed.

The failure to identify where development should occur at transit-oriented density makes it impossible for VRE or PRTC to plan cost-effective transit systems.

Should this occur, Prince William would be in a position of playing catch-up to development for the next 22 years, rather than integrating transportation and land use planning so increased bus/rail transit services could reduce highway congestion.

The Planning Commission and the Board of Supervisors, which makes the final decision, will determine how to align the inconsistent drafts proposed by two separate committees.

Residential Densities - How much is enough?

The 2008 update aims to plan development for Prince William County until 2030. The 2008 review aims to provide a plan that will accommodate projected population increases to 2030 in a manner that protects quality of life for all residents.

Year	Population	Households Needed to Accommodate Population (Persons/Household = 2.94)	Existing, Zoned and Planned Residential Units (as of December 2007)	Surplus/Deficit
2008	386,047	131,309	180,852	49,543
2025	523,668	178,118	180,852	2,734
2030	555,012	188,780	180,852	7,928

Based on the Planning staff analysis, the current Comprehensive Plan already plans for sufficient residential development to accommodate the projected population increases in Prince William County until 2025. With the addition of planned residential densities for the categories excluded from the County's build out analysis, it appears likely that the County has planned for adequate housing to accommodate populations projections to 2030.

Opportunities to better manage growth and development

The 2008 Comprehensive Plan update is an opportunity to pursue "smart growth" strategies:

RELOCATE residential densities FROM outlying areas and environmentally sensitive lands TO vacant and under-developed areas adjacent to transit;
Revitalize existing commercial centers;
Plan for adequate parkland and open space;
Plan for school sites in locations where the majority of students can walk or bike to school.

The Mobility Committee recommended six specific locations that were the highest priorities for enhancing transit services. These locations reflect the areas proposed for revitalization, as well as areas where developer interest is high.

Some of the "centers" proposed in the Land Use chapter match up with these six areas. However, development in many of the proposed Centers of Community would make the proposed increase in transit services financially impossible.

In addition, the Land Use Advisory Committee is recommending changes to allowed residential densities in the Semi-Rural Residential district, mixed use categories and others.

Click here to read more about the Land Use Advisory Committee recommendations...

Click here to read more about the Mobility Committee recommendations...

Click here to share your views with Commissioners and here to email Supervisors.