- Population growth will continue here. There is no "stop growth" option.
Existing residents can't just close the doors and keep more people from moving here and buying new homes. The BANANA strategy (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone) is not feasible. The NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) approach works only if suitable sites for development are identified.
- Virginia is a Dillon Rule state limiting the powers of local governments, but counties, cities, and towns do have the power to shape where development will occur and how we will accommodate growth. Most fundamentally, Prince William's Comprehensive Plan defines an urban growth boundary with a Development Area where new construction is encouraged, and a Rural Area where high-cost public facilities will not be located.
Comprehensive Plans and zoning ordinances also guide development in the independent cities of Manassas and Manassas Park, and in the towns of Dumfries, Haymarket, and Occoquan. The Planning Commission in the tiny town of Quantico steers development through the town's municipal code, including zoning and subdivision ordinances.
Saratoga Hunt development
- Prince William County developed as a bedroom community. People commuted to jobs "downtown" and spurred commercial development in other jurisdictions, but Prince William had to expand the school system to educate the children of commuters.
New residents require expanding public services (building new schools/hiring more teachers, building new fire stations/hiring more fire fighters, etc.) The budget has increased steadily as the population has grown. Local property taxes fund most of the costs of county services, but new residents do not always pay enough property taxes to cover their share of increased costs.
The "break-even point" for new houses is around $500,000. On average, a new house sold for less than that break-even point requires current residents to pay higher property taxes, subsidizing new schools, fire/police stations, libraries, parks, and other local services for residents in new "tax-negative" housing.1
In 1975 Manassas and Manassas Park chose to become independent cities in part because residents in those areas were paying high real estate taxes to fund expansion of schools near Route 1. Becoming a city enabled retention of local taxes to serve local residents.
Northern Virginia jurisdictions closer to DC have gradually increased the number of local jobs. Today, roughly 50% of real estate taxes in Arlington come from commercial properties, relieving the burden on local homeowners. In Prince William, over 80% of property taxes still come from residential properties, and residents pay a higher percentage of property value every year (0.9%) than in Arlington County (0.8%).
Arlington has outgrown its status as a bedroom community. Though much smaller in size, the value of land/buildings there is 133% of the value in Prince William. Total real property assessments (all property types) in Prince William is $50 billion, while Arlington assessments exceed $66 billion and Fairfax exceeds $200 billion.2
- Today's commuting traffic nightmare is created by our land use pattern – jobs are clustered in the urban core, but workers live on the periphery. Population in eastern Prince William started to grow after Shirley Highway (now I-95/I-395) was built to Occoquan River in 1949 and widened to a 4-lane freeway in 1952. Subdivisions such as Marumsco Woods, Dale City, Montclair, and Lake Ridge offered a better housing deal than places in Fairfax/Arlington.
The tradeoff for a bigger/cheaper house is a longer commute to work. I-66 in western Prince William spurred another population surge starting in the 1960's. Now Route 28 north of Manassas is so congested, the Omni-Ride commuter bus goes far west to the Route 234 Bypass to get on I-66. Prince William today exports almost 60% of its workers in the morning to jobs in jurisdictions closer to DC.3
- Northern Virginia roads have been built/expanded since the 1950's, but congestion remains - well, horrible. Every time we have increased road capacity for commuters, any short-term relief was replaced by new congestion as local officials rezoned land for more houses. After a few years, additional commuters have clogged the roads again.
In 1986 under Gov. Baliles and again in 2013 under Gov. McDonnell, the General Assembly raised taxes substantially to fund new road/transit construction. However, as long as more houses are built in Prince William while jobs stay concentrated in Fairfax/Arlington//DC, then traffic congestion will continue to get worse. New roads and rail/bus transit requires new taxes, and now new tolls.
More-of-the-same development means more-of-the-same tax increases to fund more-of-the-same roads that are used to justify more-of-the-same development, maintaining more-of-the-same traffic congestion no matter how many extra roads we build.
- There are two ways to solve traffic congestion. The Transportation Chapter in the Prince William Comprehensive Plan deals with only one, adding new transportation capacity. Prince William's Comprehensive Plan includes plans to build 700 miles of new roads (costing roughly $5 billion...), extending VRE to Haymarket (costing roughly $500 million...), bringing Metro to Gainesville and/or Potomac Mills (costing roughly $10-$15 billion...).
Virginia's total statewide road/transit construction budget for the FY 2016-2021 Six-Year Improvement Program, after the surge of new funding from the 2013 tax increase, is $2.2 billion/year. In Virginia, 133 jurisdictions (95 counties and 38 cities) compete for that funding.
The "we can build our way out of congestion" option would be extraordinarily expensive, and won't become reality for decades (if ever). Even if you look through rose-colored glasses to see an optimistic funding scenario, current commuters will be retired before that funding could create new transportation capacity.4
- The Strategic Vision of Prince William ("Prince William County is a community of choice with a strong, diverse economic base, where families and individuals choose to live and work and businesses choose to locate") is to attract businesses to the county and increase the commercial tax base.
Stimulating economic development within the county, Manassas, and Manassas Park will lower the burden of local property taxes paid by residents and reduce traffic congestion. Spending tax dollars on new transportation projects that increase the number of residents commuting to jobs in other jurisdictions (such as widening I-66, building the Bi-County Parkway, or starting a commuter ferry on the Potomac River) does nothing to create a strong, diverse economic base locally or encourage businesses to choose to locate here.
- For over 60 years since completion of the Shirley Highway, we have followed the same development pattern. We build new roads and authorize new subdivisions, further and further from the job centers in the urban core. We replace forests and fields with asphalt and rooftops. New commuters drive out of those new subdivisions, clogging the new roads again.
The "build more roads - then build more roads again" approach has not solved the problem. Most obviously, I-95 has been expanded multiple times, but more-of-the-same development (with houses in Prince William, Manassas, and Manassas Park but jobs located in DC, Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax) has created more-of-the-same traffic congestion.
There is an alternative solution. Prince William, Manassas, and Manassas Park could focus on attracting/expanding businesses that create new local jobs, rather than exporting workers via I-95/I-66 or by commuter rail.
Local economic development is not a short-term silver bullet, but it is a fundamental part of the long-term solution. The key is to address demand for new roads as well as supply.
Locating new jobs near where workers live can break the traditional pattern of "sprawl and crawl." The planned transportation improvements, funded in Virginia's Six-Year Improvement Program, should address existing congestion. Creating new local jobs in Prince William, Manassas, and Manassas Park will reduce the need for residents to commute long distances into the urban core, and thus minimize future congestion from future residents.
- Another alternative to more-of-the-same development is Transit Oriented Development (TOD). Arlington County's smart growth model, locating high-density, mixed use developments within ¼ mile of Metro stations, is being mimicked along Silver Line stations in Fairfax and Loudoun counties. Revitalization of Route 1 in Fairfax County, with improved bus service, will create higher-density centers. Downtown Manassas is also following that example, redeveloping into a walkable, mixed-use community where people live as well as work.
The Virginia Railway Express (VRE) is just a commuter railroad today, transporting employees to jobs located north of the Occoquan River. If VRE became a mass transit system offering service regularly throughout the day and not just at rush hour, then skilled workers in the urban core could get to jobs in Prince William, Manassas, and Manassas Park.
Expanding jobs in Prince William, Manassas, and Manassas Park requires reversing that commute pattern.
Companies targeted by the county's Economic Development office (in the Life Sciences, Information Technology, Defense/Federal Agencies, Advanced Logistics, and Advanced Manufacturing sectors) need offices near mass transit in order to attract modern skilled workers. We could not even participate in the competition for relocating the FBI headquarters, because the site requirements included access to mass transit.5
The best locations to expand employment in Prince William are the Route 1 corridor (especially near the Quantico Marine Corps Base) and at Innovation. VRE stations service Route 1 now, but not Innovation - yet. Moving the end-of-line station to Innovation (and not wasting money to build new track to Haymarket) would help the county recruit new businesses.
Traditional marketing to recruit new employers has been only marginally successful. More-of-the-same recruitment will not create better results. It is time for a structural change in our economic development strategy. An improved business recruitment/economic growth process requires offering an easy commute by train or bus for skilled workers living in the urban core to reach offices in Prince William, Manassas, and Manassas Park.
- More-of-the-same sprawl, subsidized by taxpayer-funded transportation projects, is the greatest threat to our local environment.
Poorly-planned development is damaging streams and eliminating wildlife habitat, increasing traffic congestion, and making it harder to attract businesses that might provide local jobs. A smarter development pattern would help to protect remaining natural areas on the periphery of the urban core – especially the Rural Area in Prince William.
There are many speculative scenarios for the future. Telecommuting could dramatically reduce the need to commute to work - but how would that affect Prince William County, Manassas, and Manassas Park? Communities in far rural Virginia, with a lower cost of living and higher quality of life might out-compete Northern Virginia; the value of homes in Prince William might decline. If self-driving cars are produced and technology is added to create intelligent highways, then car-pooling might decline and traffic congestion get even worse.
Such speculation can be entertaining, but is not a basis for doing nothing or continuing to repeat the mistakes of the past. There is a common solution to the problems of congested traffic, long commutes, high property taxes, and a degraded local environment. If we continue more-of-the-same development, we will get more-of-the-same problems. We need to take a different path towards development, which is the same path towards conservation.
